The good, the bad and the ugly: disaster risk reduction versus disaster risk creation

Vulnerability accrues as a result of failure to explore links with poverty, risk, and disasters and tends to encourage disaster risk creation.This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: (i) endangerment, which includes (1) environmental degradation, (2) discrimination and (3) displacement; and (ii) impoverishment, including (4) self-seeking public expenditure, (5) denial of access to resources, (6) corruption and (7) siphoning of public money. This article is available at:

http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-disaster-risk-reduction-drr-versus-disaster-risk-creation-drc/

Building resilience and improving responses to humanitarian emergencies through innovation and better use of evidence

With the predicted impact of climate change, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, and conflict means that the frequency and severity of crises will increase and affect more people in the future. In preparation for this uncertain future, there is need to find innovative ways of working and use the best science to help identify the most effective interventions. However, to date there has been relatively little investment to provide this evidence or to promote innovation in a humanitarian system that moves quickly from one disaster to the next. Link to summary of this article available on this link.

New at ORI Library: the God species: how the planet can survive the age of humans

In this book, the author, Mark Lynas posits that although we humans are God species, paradoxically, we are both creators and destroyers of life. The author explains that there are nine planetary boundaries that humanity must not cross if Earth is to continue to support life and our civilisation. Although climate change is one, others like ocean acidification, nitogen use and biodiversity loss-are less known although crucial. His response to these challenges is that we must use our technological mastery over nature to save the planet from ourselves.

Latest models could give disaster warnings

An ensemble of climate and weather simulations could help developing countries better prepare for extreme events such as tropical cyclones, droughts and floods, scientists have said. Many poorer countries rely on traditional weather forecasting techniques, in which an initial set of weather conditions is fed into a single model to predict future adverse events, typically one or two days ahead. Instead, the 'ensemble' method, developed in the 1990s but requiring a computational infrastructure that eludes most developing countries, uses multiple models, or versions of models, each processing different types of information to reach its conclusions. Ensembles yield an average forecast up to 15 days ahead.

ORI Seminar:Climatic and hydrological changes in the Okavango Delta.

During the period of 2009-2010 several parts of the world have experienced remarkably extreme meteorological events. In the wetlands of the Okavango Delta, the 2009-2011 floods were unexpectedly high, reaching magnitudes last seen 30-40 years ago, and considerably affecting life of local populations and the economically important tourism industry.In his seminar presentation, Climatic and hydrological changes in the Okavango Delta, ORI Professor, Piotr Wolski's paper was an attempt at identifying the climatological causes of these events in the context of their predictability using seasonal weather forecasts and to assess the extent to which these events are attributable to GHG-driven climate change as opposed to natural variability. The study is based on an ensemble of runs of the HadAM3P model, forced by a) observed SST fields (GHG world) and b) SSTs with effects of historical anthropogenic forcings removed (non-GHG world). Changes in inundation distribution within the Okavango Delta are, however, not just a product of exogenous or climatic influences. Endogeneous changes related to geomorphological and vegetation development of the system can cause redistribution of water which result in some parts drying, while others are subject to more extensive flooding.

Famine response needs better science communication

The Horn of Africa drought exposes the continuing gap between our ability to predict disaster and to take effective humanitarian action. The situation emphasises the gap between our rapidly increasing ability to predict disasters, thanks largely to advances in science and technology, and our capacity to generate the political will to carry out effective mitigation strategies. Modern technology, and in particular the widespread use of remote sensing satellites, has given us the power to predict disasters with far greater accuracy than ever before. Admittedly there is some way to go before many African governments — with some notable exceptions, such as Nigeria and South Africa — are convinced of the need to make their own substantial investments in this technology.

Droughts, heatwaves, floods Why extreme weather is the new normal

What was, until quite recently, predictable, temperate, mild and equable weather, guaranteed to be warmish and wettish, ensuring green lawns in August, now sees the seasons reversed and temperature and rainfall records broken almost every year. Sober government scientists at the centre for hydrology and ecology are openly using words like "remarkable", "unprecedented" and "shocking" to describe the recent physical state of Britain this year, but the extremes we are experiencing in 2011 are nothing to the scale of what has been taking place elsewhere recently. Read more on this topic at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires

Seismology and tsunamis:making waves

For a long time, geologists have always known that some marine earthquakes generate fierce tsunamis whilst others donot. But as the situation in Japan has demonstrated, there is no way of telling the difference until a wave arrives.However, a better and new earth quake monitoring system developed by Andrew Newman and Jaime Convers at the Georgia Institute of Technology may however help to change that. This system taps into hundreds of of seismic monitoring stations around the world and when an earthquake is detected, the software immediately looks at the size of the tremor and the location of its epicentre. The full article is available in this issue of the Economist in the ORI library.

Adapting to climate change

The document provides some in-country examples (Uganda, Vietnam, Botswana, Namibia, Angola and Denmark) of DHI's ongoing work developing climate change adaptation strategies that are also linked and integrated with strategies for disaster risk management. It also describes DHI's support in: (i) vulnerability assessment; (ii) climate change impact assessment; (iii) protecting infrastructures, including the development of guidelines providing a consistent framework for the impact analysis of future climate changes; and suggests some references for further reading. Full report available here.

Across Borders-KAZA TCFA

Often referred to as the most ambitious and complex conservation project in the world, negotiations surrounding the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area, are expected to be finalised this year and the five countries's ministers will meet again to sign a formal treaty that will legalise KAZA and its Secretariat. KAZA will further develop joint protocols and procedures in areas such as fire management, law enforcement, fisheries and research. Since 2008, KAZA-TCFA countries have been preparing their individual Integrated Development Plans (IDPs and this will be merged into a consolidated KAZA IDP, serving as the road map of the project. The Secretariat is now slated to move to Kasane.

Community preparedness in Bangladesh: learning from floods of 2007

Communities living in flood prone areas can learn lessons from Bangladesh's recovery from the 2007 floods. This publication asserts that awareness and preparedness enabled communities in Gaibandha, Bogra and Srajgong districts of Bangladesh to cope with and recover from the floods of 2007. Adjacent communities, who were unprepared suffered greater losses. Read more on this issue at: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/17349_17349communitypreparednessinbanglad.pdf

Disaster risk reduction: an instrument for achieving the Millennium Development Goals

This publication aims to assist members of parliament to oversee national progress and investments made towards achieving the Millenium Development Goals in their country, using disaster risk reduction. Goal by goal, it outlines priorities, steps and interventions needed to reduce or eliminate disaster risks. And, of course, this kit gives examples of the good work already done by many parliaments around the world. It shows how disasters can derail progress made towards the MDGs and development, and why disaster risk reduction is so important to maintaining development gains.It also points out a few key interventions that should be undertaken in reducing disaster risks to accelerate the process of achieving the MDGs, and how parliamentarians can achieve policy and practical changes, at both national and local levels. http://www.preventionweb.net/files/15711_ipu.pdf

Waternet students presentations

Last week Friday, the 5 Masters in Integrated Water Resources Management students made presentations on various disasters in their respective countries. Farayi Dube talked about the occurrence of drought in Zimbabwe, whilst Chipo Mubambe specifically talked about the 1991-1992 drought in his country, Zambia. Eurico Macuacua's presentation was titled Natural disaster in Mozambique-the case of the 2000 floods, whilst Thabo Motsoana concentrated on the Lesotho flash appeal for 2006-2007 drought. Lastly Margaret Mogo related Kenya's impact and response to the 1997-1998 Elnino disaster.

Geoinformation for disaster and risk management: examples and best practices

The publication aims to explain to governments, decision makers and disaster professionals the potential uses of geoinformation technologies for reducing disaster risks and losses, based on the knowledge and experience of experts in these fields. It covers all regions of the world and all aspects of disaster risk and its management. Full report available on:
http://www.preventionweb.net/files/14634_GeoinformationforDisasterandRiskMan.pdf

New at HOORC Library: Assessing vulnerability to global environmental change;making research useful for adaptation decision making and policy

With the reduction of vulnerability in every one's mind, the logical reasoning dicatates that resources should be distributed in such a way that most in need receive the assistance they need. that being the case, should this assistance include funds purely for adapting to climate change or will it also provide resources for combating the root of vulnerability, which is poverty. If we undertake vulnerability assessments, i.e. bringing together information on the exposure and sensitivity of a particular population or environment to change, and assessing its adaptive capacity to deal with this change, vulnerability analyses can succeed in highlighting areas of concern and accordingly inform political decision-making processes. In a broader context, these assessments can also highlight the far-reaching impacts of environmental changes and thus help to trigger political action in order to avoid these. The book is available at the HOORC Library.

Zambezi River Basin Initiative

The Botswana Red Cross Society in partnership with the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and Red Crescent Societies launched a long term, cross border initiative to support chronically vulnerable people living along the Zambezi River basin in seven countries, namely Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Its theme "Early warning, early action" speaks of disaster preparedness. This project was initiated late last year after a realisation to strenghthen humanitarian services as the occureences of disaters seem to be on the rise. For example over the past two decades, disasters worldwide have doubled- from 200-400 per year and nine out of ten disasters are related to climate change.

International Workshop on Advances in Flood Forecasting and the Implications for Risk Management

The International Commission for the Hydrology of the River Rhine Basin (CHR in collaboration with Netherlands and German National Comittees for IHP-HWRP are organising an International Workshop on Advances in Flood Forecasting and the Implications for Risk Management, from the 25-26th May in Alkmmar, Netherlands.The recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling and information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management. The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives. For more on the workshop visit: http://www.chr-khr.org/en/international-workshop-advances-flood-forecasting-and-implications-risk-management

The role of ecosystems in climate change adaptation

This Issues Paper analyzes the vicious spiral between climate change impacts, ecosystem degradation and increased risk of climate-related disasters. Furthermore, it defines the central role of ecosystem management in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction and their multifaceted linkages. Finally it assesses the challenges for enhanced ecosystem management for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. To see report visit the UNEP site.

Climate Change in Africa

This book outlines current thinking and evidence on climate change, uses case studies to look at issues ranging from natural disasters to biofuels, and addresses what future there might be for Africa in a carbon-constrained world. Climate change is a major challenge for us all, but for African countries it represents a particular threat. This book outlines current thinking and evidence and the impact such change will have on Africa's development prospects. Global warming above the level of two degrees Celsius would be enormously damaging for poorer parts of the world, leading to crises with crops, livestock, water supplies and coastal areas. Within Africa, it's likely to be the continent's poorest people who are hit hardest. In this accessible and authoritative introduction to an often-overlooked aspect of the environment, Camilla Toulmin uses case studies to look at issues ranging from natural disasters to biofuels, and from conflict to the oil industry. Finally, the book addresses what future there might be for Africa in a carbon-constrained world. Full report : http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/G02579.pdf

World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate change

The two core global priorities are poverty reduction and sustainable development. A quarter of the population of developing countries still lives on less than $1.25 a day. One billion people lack clean drinking water; 1.6 billion, electricity; and 3 billion, adequate sanitation. A quarter of all developing country children are malnourished. Addressing these needs must remain the priorities both of developing countries and of development aid—recognizing that development will get harder, not easier, with climate change.Yet climate change must urgently be addressed. Climate change threatens all countries, with developing countries the most vulnerable. Estimates are that they would bear some 75 to 80 percent of the costs of damages caused by the changing climate. Even 2°C warming above preindustrial temperatures—the minimum the world is likely to experience—could result in permanent reductions in GDP of 4 to 5 percent for Africa and South Asia. Full report available on:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/lib.nsf/db900sid/AZHU-7VX7FV/$file/WB_Sep2009.pdf?openelement