Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. This report is available at:

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/14000/9781464800559s.pdf?sequence=6

An overview of recent urban climate resilience resources

There is a critical need for a flexible and dynamic approach to building disaster resilience that goes beyond risk mitigation. More than 50% of the world’s population currently lives in cities. By 2050, this figure is expected to increase to 70%, or 6.4 billion people. Climate change impacts, including rising sea level, more frequent and severe storms, coastal erosion and declining freshwater sources will likely exacerbate urban issues, in particular in poor and vulnerable communities that lack adequate infrastructure and services.
Building Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools, and Practice is a practical resource designed to give planners and practitioners an intuitive way to build elements of resilience into urban governance and planning. The report is available at:
 http://www.seachangecop.org/sites/default/files/documents/2013%2002%20WB%20Building%20Urban%20Resilience.pdf

Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experience

This evaluation report  draws from the World Bank Group experience with adaptation to both current levels of climate variability and ongoing climate change. It reviews the impact of longer-standing efforts to deal with climate variability, for instance throughdrought relief, sustainable land management, and flood control. The evaluation also looks at how, and how well, the World Bank Group has incorporated climate change risks into the design and appraisal of long-lived infrastructure. It assesses early lessons from a new crop of activities that explicitly grapple with climate adaptation at the national level.
This article is available at:

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/dam/ieg/climate_change3/cc3_full_eval.pdf