Okavango Research Institute researcher predicts more rain this year

One of our researcher, Mr Oliver Moses  has predicted a lot of rainfall in Botswana due to La Nino, which has affected the Equatorial Pacific region. Mr Moses was presenting his research findings dubbed "The Current Rains & Ocean - Atmosphere Interactions", during a stakeholder meeting in Maun. He said normal to above normal rain fall was expected between January and March this year.

The  main aim of the research was to update stakeholders on the current rains and to explain their connection with ocean-atmosphere interactions in relation to Botswana’s climate and also sensitize them about how the warming and cooling of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean influenced Botswana’s climate. 

Mr Moses revealed that generally, La Nina was associated with wet conditions, while its counterpart, El Nino was associated with dry conditions in Botswana. He said sometimes trade winds intensified causing an upsurge that is stronger than usual, resulting in temperatures that are colder than normal.

He explained that what happens in the oceans affects the weather in Botswana, adding that currently the country has already received more rainfall which caused havoc in some parts resulting in some buildings, roads and bridges destroyed.
 

SEASONAL FORECAST: JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH 2017: 

·        Kgalagadi, Gantsi, Ngamiland, Chobe, Northern Central, Southeast, Kgatleng and Kweneng Districts:- Expected to receive Normal to above normal rains (Very wet conditions expected). Normal ranges from 100mm over Kgalagadi to 320mm over Chobe. 

·        Southern Central and North-East Districts:- Expected to receive above normal rains Extremely wet). Normal ranges between 180mm to 200mm.

 

The gathering was also briefed that in Ngamiland, there was a shift as rainfall started in November while generally rain season starts in October. The shift was caused by climate change adding that this season, the district experienced more rains in January.

“We have already experienced more rain in January and yet the season is not ending which means by the end of the season, the rains will be significant. This year there is a lot of rain coming,” he added.

The State of Food and Agriculture 2016 : Climate change, agriculture and food security

The Paris Agreement, adopted in December 2015, represents a new beginning in the global effort to stabilize the climate before it is too late. It recognizes the importance of food security in the international response to climate change, as reflected by many countries focusing prominently on the agriculture sector in their planned contributions to adaptation and mitigation. To help put those plans into action, this report identifies strategies, financing opportunities, and data and information needs. It also describes transformative policies and institutions that can overcome barriers to implementation. 

Access  Full Report: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6030e.pdf

Greening, but not so great

Climate change deniers will say evidence of carbon pollution making earth more verdant is all good news. Olive Heffernan says it is not.

Half our planet's vegetated surface has become significantly greener in the past three decades. Plants in many regions from stocky shrubs of the Arctic to towering trees of the rain forest are growing bigger leaves, according to the latest evidence.

Visit the library to read more from New Scientists.

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis

By Elijah Chirebvu1†, Moses John Chimbari, Barbara Ntombi Ngwenya, Benn Sartorius

Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years.

Read full paper: http://www.pubfacts.com/detail/26983035/Clinical-Malaria-Transmission-Trends-and-Its-Association-with-Climatic-Variables-in-Tubu-Village-Bot

Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

Authors/Editors:Stephane Hallegatte, Mook Bangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg, David Treguer and Adrien Vogt-Schilb

Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Read more: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/book/10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5

Global Climate Observation: the Road to the Future

Climate observations are essential for understanding the complexities of the global climate system; indeed virtually all breakthroughs that have been made in understanding climate have come from observations. Observations provide critical benchmarks for testing and further developing our predictive capability through models. While the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) states that the human influence on the climate system is clear, it also notes that there are gaps in the current global climate observing system on which these statements are based. There are also increasing needs for more detailed climate observations resulting from adaption planning to reduce risks from climate change and variability. This is why it is crucial to make further progress towards achieving a fully implemented, sustainable, global observing system for climate. GCOS has been responsible since 1992 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for ensuring a sustained, long-term and reliable system for monitoring the global climate. An important aspect of this is the definition of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), which are critical to our understanding of the climate and that support the work of the UNFCCC and the IPCC, as well as many other international organisations and programmes.

The conference Global Climate Observation: the Road to the Future is being held to allow producers and users of climate observations and other stakeholders the opportunity to discuss the current monitoring of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and to highlight possible new areas for ECVs. These discussions provide a key input into the new GCOS Implementation Plan that is now being prepared for UNFCC in 2016. The conference Global Climate Observation: the Road to the Future is held from 2-4 March 2016 at the Royal Academy of Arts and Sciences, Amsterdam.

Link: http://www.gcos-science.org/

Nature-based Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation: From Deforestation to Forest Restoration

Deforestation accounts for nearly 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is also strongly linked to development issues, as healthy forests are vital in the fight against poverty. Forest and landscape restoration initiatives offer significant benefits for climate change adaptation and mitigation, and are also an efficient means of generating income for local communities, improving rural livelihoods and preserving cultural traditions. They provide solutions to balancing conflicting land use interests in forest areas and can reconcile environmental concerns with economic development.

To highlight this, IUCN teamed up with UNESCO and Fairventures Worldwide to organise a session at the European Development Days on 3-4 June in Brussels entitled “Nature-based Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation: From Deforestation to Forest Restoration”. In the session, moderated by the Director of IUCN’s European Regional Office Luc Bas, speakers presented best practices in forest restoration and highlighted the benefits of nature-based solutions for sustainable development.

Wolfgang Baum, manager of Fairventures’ 1mTrees programme, which aims to establish an economically and environmentally sustainable land use practice on the island of Borneo, noted that governments generally have little interest in conservation for conservation’s sake, and that the economic value of forest restoration projects must therefore be made apparent. 1mTrees provides farmers with a way to secure an income by revitalising degraded land with trees and thereby boosting the resilience of their habitat against natural disasters.

Thomas Hirsch, general manager of Pacific Ring Europe, a timber company relying on low-density and fast-growing Albasia Falcata trees, outlined how large agroforestry projects could be made responsible, profitable and sustainable by engaging with local farmers and by creating a demand for lighter wood where customers are traditionally used to resource-heavy timber. He demonstrated ways in which the economic model of his company was contributing to the development of tree farms in Indonesia while helping to take pressure off the virgin forest reserves.

The Chief of UNESCO World Heritage Centre’s Africa Unit, Edmond Moukala N’Gouemo, stressed the fact that cultural traditions are inherently linked to natural habitats. With global deforestation progressing at an unprecedented rate, he warned that we are also putting our valuable cultural heritage at risk, reaffirming that the protection of our ecosystems must be of the highest priority.

Cristiana Pasca Palmer, Head of Unit on climate change at the European Commission’s DG DEVCO, provided a snapshot of actions taken by the EU on the issue of deforestation. Moreover, she once again stressed the inseparable link between ecosystem protection and poverty reduction as a pillar for the EU programme for development.

Readmore: http://www.iucn.org/about/union/secretariat/offices/europe/?21544/Nature-based-Solutions-for-Climate-Change-Mitigation-From-Deforestation-to-Forest-Restoration

1st International Conference on “Innovation for Sustainability under Climate Change and Green Growth/Economy”

The Exxaro Chair in Business and Climate Change at the University of South Africa (Unisa) is hosting the 1st International Conference on Innovation for Sustainability under Climate Change and Green Economy/Growth which will take place from 26 to 28 May 2015.


The conference emerges from a long term partnership between Unisa and Exxaro Resources Ltd, a South African based company which is the main sponsor. It is a brainchild of Prof Godwell Nhamo the incumbent of the Unisa Exxaro Chair in Business and Climate Change and is organized in partnership with selected South African national departments, academic institutions, international partners as well as local industry and local government partners. The conference aims to contribute knowledge and practical solutions to the standing global challenge of climate change and its potential solution, the emerging green economy/growth transition process.

Among the national departments partnering with Unisa in this conference are the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) and the Department of Science and Technology (DST). The participating academic institutions include the University of Pretoria, University of the Witwatersrand, North West University, Human and Social Research Council (HSRC), Tshwane University of Technology and the University of Limpopo.

The academic institutions mentioned here exclude presenters coming from a range of universities across

Africa and beyond. International organisations taking part include SEED – Promoting Entrepreneurship for Sustainable Development and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) based in South Korea. The South African Local Government Association (SALGA), National Business Initiative (NBI), Development Bank of Southern Africa, Green Fund, BMW Club Motors Fountains, Gliimo SA, iGREENs, Blank Canvas International, SAINe, Matayo Biofuels Pty and Hisense South Africa are among local industry and local government partners playing a part in the event.

The conference addresses four thematic areas namely: Business and Biodiversity; Energy and Energy Management; Water Connections, Global Change and Sustainability; and Climate Change and Green Economy/Growth Transition. The themes cover social, business and environmental concerns and practices.
The conference is executed along four platforms that focus on symposia, academic papers, workshops, and displays. Some of the symposia to look forward to include:  Sustainable Business Leadership: Leading Innovation beyond Compliance; Entrepreneurship: A solution for climate change and green growth; and Green growth/economy and Climate Change Readiness for Local Government.

The workshops lined up cover topics like Electric Vehicles, Carbon Tax and Renewable Energy as a path to Energy Efficiency in Public Buildings. A Marketplace organised by SEED and the South African Industrial Development Corporation will showcase innovative entrepreneurial solutions to climate change and global development challenges.

Internationally renowned speakers to grace the occasion include: Prof Nader Mahinpey of the University of Calgary in Canada, Dr Helen Marquard of SEED, Prof Martina Maria Keitsch of Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Ms Sibongile Mavimbela from the Southern African Development community (SSADC), and Lord Michael Hastings KPMG’s Global Head of Citizenship and former Vice Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Agenda Council – The Future of Civil Society.

Among the local speakers are: Prof Divya Singh the Vice Principal for Assurance and Advisory Services at Unisa, Dr Phil Mjwara the Director General in the Department of Science and Technology, Mr Alfred James Wills the Deputy Director General for Environmental Advisory Services in the Department of Environmental Affairs, Mr Colin Coleman the Managing Director of Goldman Sachs (south Africa), Mr Hanno Olinger the Manager for Sustainability at Exxaro Resources, Ms Joanne Yawitch the NBI CEO, Mr Raldu Nel the CEO of Blank Canvas International, Mr Thomas Garner the CEO fat Cennergi (a 50:50 joint venture formed between Exxaro Resources and Tata Power from India), Dr. Sampson Mamphweli from University of Fort Hare and Prof Dewald Van Niekerk from the Northwest University.

Members of the media are invited to attend.

Dates: 26 to 28 May
Venue: Birchwood Hotel, Boksburg
Address: 14 View Point Road, Boksburg
Start Time: 08:30

 Contact details:

All enquiries to:
Ms Nhlanhla Mabaso
Email: Mabasnp@unisa.ac.za
Telephone: +27 12 433 4656

Why climate challenges are an opportunity for Africa

The year 2015 is when climate change, energy needs and financing for development get the global attention they deserve. Over the course of the year, world leaders will settle on a new set of global development goals, hold a summit on financing for those goals and frame an agreement on climate change.

The challenges are immense. Creating jobs, sustaining growth and eradicating poverty in a carbon-constrained world demands a restructuring of energy systems and a deeper appreciation of the boundaries of our ecological systems. Our panel members are at the forefront of these debates.

On 5 June, at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Cape Town, the Africa Progress Panel, chaired by Kofi Annan, will launch the 2015 report on climate and energy. The report will make the case that Africa’s engagement in climate change is inextricably linked to its pressing energy needs.

In Africa, unequal access to energy has reinforced the wider inequalities linked to poverty, gender and the rural-urban divide that have accompanied the economic growth of the past 15 years. Africa is already experiencing severe and damaging impacts from climate change. Yet no region has done less to contribute to global warming than Africa.

So great are the energy challenges and so severe the climate risks that it is easy to lose sight of the opportunities. And those opportunities are considerable. They are part of a fundamentally different narrative that is emerging across Africa. The climate change imperative is seen as an opportunity for Africa’s energy-poor countries to leapfrog straight to clean energy, avoiding decades of inefficient spending on polluting energy sources.

In this 2015 “climate moment”, Africa must emphasize that making the transition to clean energy will only be possible if the chosen pathway ends energy poverty; if it enables countries to continue to grow and transform economically – a “development first” approach; and if it ensures that Africa will not become one of the world’s worst polluting continents.

Read more: http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/why-climate-challenges-are-an-opportunity-for-africa/

Traditional Knowledge and Climate Science Toolkit

Indigenous communities have long histories of interaction with the environment that include coping with variability, uncertainty and change. However, climate induced impacts on their territories and communities are anticipated to be both early and severe due to their location in vulnerable habitats, including small islands, high altitude zones, desert margins and the circumpolar Arctic. Climate change poses a direct threat to many indigenous societies due to their continuing reliance upon resource-based livelihoods. At the same time, resilience in the face of a changing environment is embedded in indigenous knowledge and know-how, diversified resources and livelihoods, social institutions and networks, and cultural values and attitudes. Attentiveness to environmental variability, shifts and trends is an integral part of their ways of life. Community-based and local knowledge may offer valuable insights on climate induced changes, and complement broader-scale scientific research with local precision and nuance. This toolkit provides access to articles, videos and various other resources that will assist indigenous peoples, local communities, policy makers and other stakeholders in accessing research on climate change adaptation and mitigation. The toolkit is available at: http://www.unutki.org/downloads/File/Publications/2013%20Climate%20Science%20%26%20TK%20Toolkit.pdf

Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability. It finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions, and that as warming increases from present day (0.8°C) to 2°C and 4°C, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, sea-level rise, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have further severe negative implications for the poorest and most vulnerable. The report finds that agricultural yields will be affected across the three regions, with repercussions for food security, economic growth, and poverty reduction. In addition, urban areas have been identified as new clusters of vulnerability with urban dwellers, particularly the urban poor, facing significant vulnerability to climate change. In Sub-Saharan Africa, under 3°C global warming, savannas are projected to decrease from their current levels to approximately one-seventh of total land area and threaten pastoral livelihoods. Under 4°C warming, total hyper-arid and arid areas are projected to expand by 10 percent. In South East Asia, under 2°C warming, heat extremes that are virtually absent today would cover nearly 60-70 percent of total land area in northern-hemisphere summer, adversely impacting ecosystems. This report is available at:

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/14000/9781464800559s.pdf?sequence=6

An overview of recent urban climate resilience resources

There is a critical need for a flexible and dynamic approach to building disaster resilience that goes beyond risk mitigation. More than 50% of the world’s population currently lives in cities. By 2050, this figure is expected to increase to 70%, or 6.4 billion people. Climate change impacts, including rising sea level, more frequent and severe storms, coastal erosion and declining freshwater sources will likely exacerbate urban issues, in particular in poor and vulnerable communities that lack adequate infrastructure and services.
Building Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools, and Practice is a practical resource designed to give planners and practitioners an intuitive way to build elements of resilience into urban governance and planning. The report is available at:
 http://www.seachangecop.org/sites/default/files/documents/2013%2002%20WB%20Building%20Urban%20Resilience.pdf

Point of no return: The massive climate threats we must avoid

The world is quickly reaching a Point of No Return for preventing the worst impacts of climate change. Continuing on the current course will make it difficult, if not impossible, to prevent the widespread and catastrophic impacts of climate change. The costs will be substantial: billions spent to deal with the destruction of extreme weather events, untold human suffering, and the deaths of tens of millions from the impacts by as soon as 2030. This article is available  are http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2013/PointOfNoReturn.pdf

Planet in Peril: An Atlas of Current Threats to People and the Environment

This atlas illustrates through text, graphics and diagrams the interplay between population and the world’s ecosystems and natural resources both in the short and long terms. It brings together a wealth of information from the most up-to-date sources on such key issues as climate change, access to water, exploitation of ocean resources, nuclear energy and waste, renewable energy, weapons of mass destruction, causes of industrial accidents, waste, export, hunger, genetically modified organisms, urban development, access to health care and ecological change.

The atlas is available at: http://www.grida.no/publications/planet-in-peril/

Claiming the Human Right to Protection from Disasters

The article outlines why it is the citizen's right to demand protection from disasters from his/her government and other duty-bearers. If disasters are unresolved problems of development, then failing to resolve these problems is denying people their right to protection from disasters. Losses due to disaster (numbers of people affected and economic, social and environmental assets) are on the increase.

This article is available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/submissions/31225_righttodisasterprotection.pdf

Turn Down the Heat: A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics

The world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, according to a new scientific report released today that was commissioned by the World Bank. The 4°C scenarios are devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems. All regions of the world would suffer – some more than others – but the report finds that the poor will suffer the most.

Read more at: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf...

Atlas of health and climate

This document, a product of collaboration between the meteorological and public health communities, provides sound scientific information on the connections between weather and climate and major health challenges. These range from diseases of poverty to disease outbreaks and emergencies caused by weather, climate and water-related hazards, most of them resulting from floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves and severe storms. They also include environmental degradation, the increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases and the universal trend of demographic ageing. As one of the three key messages it conveys, the atlas asserts that climate information is now being used to protect health through risk reduction, preparedness and response over various spatial and temporal scales and in both affluent and developing countries.

It is available at: http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/76224/5/9789241564526_eng.pdf

Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing World Bank Group Experience

This evaluation report  draws from the World Bank Group experience with adaptation to both current levels of climate variability and ongoing climate change. It reviews the impact of longer-standing efforts to deal with climate variability, for instance throughdrought relief, sustainable land management, and flood control. The evaluation also looks at how, and how well, the World Bank Group has incorporated climate change risks into the design and appraisal of long-lived infrastructure. It assesses early lessons from a new crop of activities that explicitly grapple with climate adaptation at the national level.
This article is available at:

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/dam/ieg/climate_change3/cc3_full_eval.pdf

Shaping strategies: factors and actors in climate change adaptation

The findings presented in this report emanate from  a two-year research project exploring household vulnerability and resilience in the context of climate variability and change. The key concern of the research was to contribute to the understanding of how households are experiencing and responding to climate shocks and stressors, what is supporting or undermining their capacity to respond, and whether or not these livelihood responses move them on a path towards becoming more resilient in the face of a changing climate. The report is available: http://www.trocaire.org/sites/trocaire/files/pdfs/policy/climate_change_research_report_2012.pdf:  

Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods and Agriculture

Climate change is a major challenge for agriculture, food security and rural livelihoods for billions of people around the world. In this paper, the author seeks to identify climate change related threats and vulnerabilities associated with agriculture as a sector and agriculture as people’s livelihoods (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity). The paper analyzes the connections between the nature of human action as drivers of threats as well as opportunities for sustainable agriculture and better human development outcomes. Broadly, it examines the impact of climate change on rural livelihoods, agriculture, food security. It discusses the options for adaptation and mitigation and requirements for implementation at local, national and international level of these measures. The full link is available here.